Schrödinger's Orange and Blue #10

Except the box either has Luciano Acosta in a FC Cincinnati uniform or it doesn't

Jan 29, 2025

brown cardboard box on white surface — Photo by Christopher Bill on Unsplash

All statistics courtesy of FBref unless otherwise noted

The status of Luciano Acosta, the biggest story of FC Cincinnati’s offseason, remains somewhat unresolved, despite his return to the squad in preseason. Instead of waiting for a definitive resolution, let’s consider both potential outcomes. In one, Acosta remains in Orange and Blue (for now at least) and in the other, FCC is Lucho-less in 2025.

Lucho Acosta’s importance to FC Cincinnati’s transformation from bottom dweller to trophy contender in Major League Soccer is hard to overstate. His raw numbers since arriving in the Queen City are staggering: 48 goals, 36 assists in 116 games. It’s no coincidence that when the Orange and Blue won its first piece of MLS silverware in 2023, Acosta was named the Landon Donovan MLS MVP. Anyone who has watched even just a little bit of FCC during Pat Noonan’s managerial tenure knows how central Acosta is to the team’s success. Which makes the run up to the 2025 season so fascinating.

Acosta’s very public interest in leaving the team sets out two very different paths forward. Down one, Acosta returns and the project already being built continues apace. In the other, in which Acosta departs, the Orange and Blue face a fundamental change, one that would change the face of the team, maybe for better but most likely for worse.

A Unique Impact

Acosta’s goals and assists only tell part of the story of his on-field contributions to a good soccer team. Everything FCC does with the ball offensively runs through him and not just in the final third. Acosta dominates the ball like few other players in the league.

I keep coming back to a black hole as a metaphor for Acosta but not in a most-destructive-force-in-the-universe kind of way. Lucho, the (almost always) smallest player on the field, dominates play and makes the game captive to his gravity. When he’s on the ball, defenders and teammates are pulled towards him, unable to escape his pull and influence.

Acosta is the attacking hub for everything FCC does in possession (to say nothing of his defensive work leading the Orange and Blue’s pressing efforts). Here’s a brief attempt to highlight some of the vital-for-a-good-soccer-team stuff Acosta does:

Moving the Ball up the Field: In 2024, Acosta completed 250 progressive passes and received 237 progressive passes. Only one other player in MLS completed 200 or more progressive passes and received 200 or more progressive passes: Houston’s Amine Bassi. Acosta ranked 13th in the league in progressive pass receptions, fourth in progressive passes completed, and ninth in progressive carries. Simply put, he is one of the best in the league at moving the ball forward AND at receiving the ball up the field. Scoring goals requires moving the ball up the field and Acosta shouldered a heavy burden in the Orange and Blue’s efforts to do so.
The Ball Is in the Final Third, Now What: Turning possession in the final third into touches in more dangerous areas is a challenge for every soccer team. In 2024, FCC completed 314 open play passes into opponents’ penalty area. Acosta was responsible for 105. The Orange and Blue successfully dribbled the ball into penalty area 184 times, Acosta contributed 54. Nearly a third of all successful open play penalty box entries came from Acosta’s passes or dribbles.
Final Touches: Acosta accounted for 109 of FCC’s 366 key passes and 11.7 of the team’s 37.7 expected assisted goals (xAG) in 2024. His 7.46 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes ranked second in MLS, trailing only Thiago Almada. In addition to his finding teammates, Acosta averaged 2.66 shots per game and 0.22 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes, both upper third percentile numbers for attacking midfielders.

In summary, if it wasn’t clear before, Acosta is integral to pretty much everything FCC do when the team has the ball.

If Acosta Stays, Maximization

If Acosta returns to the fold, FCC’s championship window remains firmly open. Instead of looking to overhaul a roster or play style, translating the tail end of Acosta’s prime seasons into more silverware would be priority number one for Noona, Chris Albright, and company.

Mix it Up

Previously, I detailed FCC’s trouble turning more possession into more (or better) goal scoring opportunities. Many of those possessions seemingly ended with Acosta running into a wall of defenders, either being tackled, miscontrolling a ball in tight spaces, or not completing a pass. Acosta’s 130 combined dispossessions and miscontrols led the team by a wide margin, but when accounting for how many more touches he had relative to his teammates, he lost the ball less as a percentage of his touches. Identifying ways to limit the possessions where Acosta has to play the perfect pass or execute the perfect dribble, FCC can look to lessen his burden.

Dial Up the Pressure: I’m certainly open to being wrong about this but FCC seemed to dial back its focus on pressuring opponents higher up the field during the 2024 season. There are difficulties to playing a style that heavily relies on pressure in MLS (read: it gets hot in the summer). But more effectively picking and choosing spots with a front line that (hopefully) can log consistent, effective minutes together would help to create better attacking chances against unsettled defenses. Refining those pressing triggers in such a way that allows the team to generate turnovers while preserving their legs will be a challenge for the coaching staff but could go a long way in generating scoring opportunities.
Getting into Positions to Succeed: Acosta will likely always drift around the field to find the ball - it just appears to be hardwired into who he is as a soccer player. However, Noonan should be doing everything he can to make sure that Acosta is the one receiving progressive passes in the final third rather than the one making them. A new look at wingback could be part of this with Lukas Engel1 potentially (probably?) stepping into FCC’s vacant left wingback spot. He profiles differently than what Noonan has relied on for the past few years but should still offer ball progression on that side of the field. Getting more forward passing from its central midfielders, especially Pavel Bucha assuming Obi Nwobodo continues his safe but mostly unambitious passing, could be a boon as well.

His Partnership With Denkey

Maximizing Lucho’s 2025 in Orange and Blue both personally and in terms of team success also means getting the most out of the (for now) record MLS incoming transfer, Kévin Denkey. However, a successful relationship doesn’t necessarily mean that Acosta will assist on ten Denkey goals.

There’s basically one striker who Acosta consistently found open in the box in possession: Brenner. Brenner’s ability to receive the ball in tight areas, combine on one-twos, and create his own shots in the box made him more like another #10 at times, allowing Lucho to play off of him.

Brandon Vazquez, the Orange and Blue’s other unqualified striker success story, succeeded on the field with Acosta but not only because of passes directly from him. Taking advantage of Vazquez’s attacking superpower - his understanding of space in the box - usually required service not from “Zone 14” or elsewhere at the top of the box where Acosta dominated the ball but from other angles.

Vazquez’s success coincided with the presence of Álvaro Barreal. Acosta’s partnership with Barreal unbalanced opposing defenses and Vazquez feasted on crosses and cutbacks often created by Acosta’s chemistry and creativity with Barreal.

If Denkey is more Vazquez than Brenner, the Orange and Blue will have to find an attacking option who can deliver those final balls. Acosta will surely still be heavily involved but it might just be setting up the assist rather than the assist itself.

If Acosta Goes, Reinvention and Risk

The conversation about what FCC looks like in a post-Lucho world is going to have to happen sometime, whether it happens this winter, over the summer, or some next year, it’s a reality that is coming sometime. Regardless of when that day finally comes, the Orange and Blue will likely face having to win soccer games in a fundamentally different way.

Options Abound

We’ve seen how rudderless in attack the team can be without Acosta before due injury and suspension. As laid out above, Lucho’s outsized role in doing the things necessary to win soccer games has been nearly impossible to replace with one player off the bench. Even seeking a long term one-to-one replacement for Acosta seems to be a fool’s errand. The list of players available to FCC on the transfer market who would be able to do the same level of ball progression and shot creation that Acosta does is very small, if there are any at all.

The most likely option would be to try to piece together Lucho’s passing and shot-creation in the aggregate.2 Part of the answer to filling that void is likely already on the roster in the form of Luca Orellano.

I’m already on the record as being excited and optimistic for what Orellano can be as a full-time attacking player in MLS. His dynamism on the ball brings a rare element and unleashing him closer to goal on a consistent basis could buoy an attack dealing with Acosta’s void.

Again, without diving too deep, a new profile at left wingback should offer more tactical flexibility while picking up some of the ball progression slack left by Acosta.3 Who exactly those other attackers would be is an open question, however. What kind of profile Albright will look for remains an open question but, to succeed, FCC will need to replace Acosta with a multitude of players who can combine to replace what Acosta brings to the table.

Which takes us to the team building needle that would have to be threaded by Albright if Acosta departs.

Downside Risk

If you squint through Orange and Blue glasses, there’s a chance you can maybe talk yourself into FCC coming out the other side of an Acosta departure as a more dangerous, well-rounded team. In that situation, instead of one player dominating ball progression and shot-creation, the burden would shift to multiple players, opening up space in the attacking third as opponents have to respect additional playmakers. Such a team should be more resilient to injury or off-days from one starting player.

However, getting from the point where FCC would be the day after a Lucho departure to the best case scenario just described isn’t a straight line. The number of signings that have to be absolutely nailed, with limited team building roster mechanics, already tilts the odds against success.

The margin for error in trying to replace Lucho is big both in terms of on-field success as well as overall enjoyment. After multiple seasons of success in the West End of Cincinnati, the possibility of being bad, or maybe even worse to some, boring, is significantly higher without Acosta. A lot of things would have to go right to get back to the same level of success we’ve come to enjoy since 2022.

Regardless of when it happens, a FC Cincinnati team without Lucho Acosta is a certainty and even though this is an analytics-heavy newsletter, I’m dreading the day. Acosta’s willingness to, for lack of a better phrase, try fun stuff on a soccer field has been a bright spot both in terms of my enjoyment as a viewer. The actual results on the field have been pretty good, too.