Depth Test: Monday Takeaways (5/5/25)
When playing in transition goes wrong, midfield depth tested, and finally some cutbacks
All stats courtesy of FBref unless otherwise noted
FC Cincinnati’s five-game winning streak ended on Sunday afternoon in Queens with a 1-0 to NYCFC.
The final scoreline flatters the Orange and Blue as the team faced far more pressure than it created. FCC improved in the second half, after Pat Noonan made what is now a familiar change in shape, but it wasn’t enough to find an equalizer. And, given the first half, FCC was fortunate to only be down by one goal. Even though the Julián Fernández’s game winner was the product of an untimely deflection and came on a relatively low percentage chance, the Pigeons consistently created danger throughout the match, taking advantage of key absences for the Orange and Blue.
1. Pressed and Countered
Missing key midfield pieces, the Orange and Blue’s plan heading into Sunday afternoon looked to be to generate opportunities in transition, either through direct passing or by attacking quickly after winning the ball higher up the field through pressure.
Unfortunately, NYCFC largely had answers for FCC’s plan and enjoyed even more success playing that way than the Orange and Blue did. The Pigeons matched FCC’s starting shape with three nominal centerbacks of its own and ran its own counter attacking mainly down its right wing, where Julián Fernández often found himself in tons of space.
With three centerbacks and two holding midfielders, NYCFC negated much of the Orange and Blue’s attempts to play direct because the Pigeons’ rest defense nearly always had more defenders than FCC counter attacked with. NYCFC pressed aggressively in the Orange and Blue’s defensive third, too, winning back possession and consistently forcing bad decisions from FCC’s defenders and midfielders.
NYCFC’s emphasis on playing in transition and pressure was evident in the first 15 minutes of the match. The Pigeons’ opening goal in the 9th minute was a direct result of pressure on applied to Luca Orellano after he received the ball near the sideline. With NYCFC players closing him down from two different directions, Orellano looked to play the ball back to Evander in the middle of the field. However, Keaton Parks was already there and won the ball, springing another attack up the left wing. The ball ended up at Fernández’s feet thanks to a deflection off Miles Robinson but NYCFC’s pressure kept the Orange and Blue from getting into a rhythm.
Five minutes later, Alonso Martínez drew a penalty after an incisive attack in transition as the Orange and Blue pushed for an immediate equalizing goal. All it took was Thiago Martins to make an easy interception on a lifted pass from Evander targeting Lukas Engel and then play a relatively straight forward pass that split FCC’s defensive lines to put Martínez through into a one-on-one with Matt Miazga in space.
Noonan cited FCC’s struggles to put NYCFC under pressure as an issue in the first half. After the game, he said, “Our pressing wasn’t good enough for the first half, and it caused us to have to defend in unnecessary ways closer to goal. They certainly have creativity and good one-v-one attackers, some good crossing moments, but yeah, we just put ourselves in too many difficult spots, and then composure with the ball was poor. So it’s hard to have any rhythm in the game when you don’t do those two things.”
Though FCC’s press settled in as the game went on and forced turnovers in NYCFC’s half, the team struggled to take advantage. Part of the issue was a lack of passing on the field.
2. Horseshoe of Sadness
I’m not exactly sure about the origin of the Horseshoe of Sadness. The example that most clearly illustrates for me is the U.S. Women’s National Team during the 2023 World Cup under Vlatko Andonovski. Simply, it’s when a team passes the ball around the periphery of its shape without doing much of anything dangerous. Unfortunately on Sunday, FCC’s play in possession, at least in the first half, reminded me of it.
Without Pavel Bucha, and playing on a narrower field than usual, the Orange and Blue struggled to consistently move the ball up the field. In the first half, when Matt Miazga, Nick Hagglund, and Miles Robinson were on the field together, FCC just didn’t have enough options on the ball and a big reason, to my eye, was the inability of the team’s midfield duo, Yuya Kubo and Brian Anunga, to find space and help break through NYCFC’s pressure.
Despite the absences in midfield, FCC still looked to attack in possession in a 3-2-5 shape, with its wingbacks pushed high and wide while the team’s front three sat more centrally. However, Kubo and Anunga struggled to move the ball forward. The pair combined to complete just four progressive passes during the game and zero progressive carries.
Too many FCC possessions ended with a speculative ball forward from a centerback after a breakthrough centrally was denied as NYCFC’s pressure closed. As noted above, when the Orange and Blue did look to move the ball up the wings, NYCFC’s pressure pounced and FCC’s midfielders didn’t provide the necessary options to release pressure and switch the point of attack.
As we’ve grown accustomed to this year, the second half was an improvement, once the Orange and Blue replaced a centerback with another option further up the field. Evander dropped into the midfield line in possession while Dado Valenzuela operated mostly in the half-space up the field. The move allowed FCC to control the ball and pile on some pressure, in search of an equalizer. However, that meant Evander was the one passing the ball forward instead of receiving it.
Even though there were positives in the second half, it’s hard to win a game when you concede 12 shots and 1.85 xG in a half while producing 5 shots and 0.23 xG yourself. Hopefully, Bucha and Nwobodo will be back in action next week but Sunday, especially the first half, doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Orange and Blue’s upside relying on its midfield depth.
3. Set Pieces
On multiple occasions on Sunday, the Orange and Blue won a throw in near NYCFC’s 18-yard-box. In a game when the team create much of anything dangerous in possession, especially building from back to front, the throw-in taker opted to throw the ball backwards, allowing NYCFC to get all its defenders behind the ball. Long throw ins into the penalty are more dangerous than throws from similar spots that don’t go into the box. Yet the Orange and Blue chose to keep trying to do what they had been, which hadn’t been particularly effective.
Corners were similarly frustrating. Even as FCC had its best chance off a corner in the second half, the team got caught by the Pigeons’ aggressive defensive line pushing up the field and catching FCC’s attackers in offside positions. Making the most of limited opportunities, even if they’re not high quality chances, is something the Orange and Blue need to do.
These are not the most important things to wining soccer games. Figuring out how to survive without Bucha on the field is a much more pressing matter, for instance. But any advantage a team can generate is important, especially when very little else is going right.