All data from FBref unless noted otherwise.
Life Without Matt Miazga & Pat Noonan Piecing Together A Backline
For the first 17 games of the 2024 season, FC Cincinnati’s defense featuring Matt Miazga and Miles Robinson was performing exactly how General Manager Chris Albright would’ve dreamed in the offseason. With Miazga on the field, FCC conceded just 1.08 expected goals allowed (xGA) per match. However, on a rainy night in San Jose in June, Miazga crashed into the goal post after attempting a tackle, fracturing his leg, and ending his season.
Since then, the story of FCC’s backline has been near-constant change. Numerous first choice options in defense missed time due to injury, suspension, and international duty. Additionally, Albright was aggressive in addressing what was suddenly a weak centerback depth chart by adding Chidozie Awaziem and Teenage Hadebe.
Unsurprisingly, FCC’s defensive record regressed - but not nearly as much as one might expect. Without Miazga on the field1, the Orange and Blue conceded 1.27 xGA/90. For context, the league average xGA/90 in the 2024 regular season was 1.46. Extrapolating out over a full season, FCC’s defense without Miazga would’ve ranked in the same place in the league in xGA, third, that it ended the season.
The defense hasn’t been as good as it was through mid-June but, realistically, that’s something that probably would’ve happened even if Miazga had remained healthy. And the defense was still really good at denying high quality chances to the opposition. Assuming Pat Noonan’s first choice centerbacks, Robinson, Awaziem, and Teenage Hadebe, continue to gel, it won’t be the defense that limits the Orange and Blue’s MLS Cup ambitions.
For a Cup run to really be possible, Noonan will need to continue to coax just enough out of an attack that has been slightly below average and heavily reliant on Lucho Acosta. One surprising name who could play a role is Yamil Asad.
Which takes us into the next topic: when exactly did Yamil Asad become the most dangerous attacking fullback in MLS (or maybe the world or the universe)?
Where Exactly Did This Come From, Yamil?
The simplest answer is that Yamil Asad doesn’t actually play much fullback. Pat Noonan’s left wingbacks have almost always had free reign to go pretty much wherever they want in possession. Álvaro Barreal and Luca Orellano thrived in this role where attacking, whether creating shots for others or taking them, was far more important than defending.
Asad is averaging nearly 35 touches in the final third per 90 minutes and 3.26 touches in the opposing penalty area. In contrast, he’s averaging just under 17 touches per 90 minutes in FCC’s defensive third. Asad’s 8.9 90s doesn’t qualify him for FBref’s leaderboard but if he was eligible, he’d rank third in final third touches per 90, trailing only teammate Lucho Acosta and the Galaxy’s Gabriel Chaves.
Anyone who has spent anytime watching Acosta in Orange and Blue knows how often he finds himself on the ball somewhere between the left half-space and Zone 14. Barreal and Acosta’s on-field relationship often involved putting defenders in no-win situations, with either player able to overlap or underlap and play a killer ball into the box. There are some similarities between Acosta and Asad already.
Asad flying forward at every opportunity is key for FCC’s attack. With three centerbacks staying at home joined often by Obi Nwobodo and sometimes Pavel Bucha, FCC’s rest defense shape is structured to let wingbacks do fun stuff.
So clearly, Asad’s defensive numbers reflect those, let’s say, limited defensive responsibilities.
FCC’s defensive shape has plenty of practice covering for a marauding wingback on the left, with Ian Murphy and now Teenage Hadebe, both pretty mobile centerbacks, able to put out fires in transition. When the Orange and Blue’s defense is fully set, Asad has been good enough.
Look What Happens When Yuya Kubo Doesn’t Play Defensive Midfielder
Yuya Kubo emerging as the Orange and Blue’s most effective striker wouldn’t have been on my bingo card entering the 2024 season. But that’s what’s happened. Kubo provides a better stylistic fit with how FCC have wanted to attack this year, able to connect with teammates in tight spaces, drop deep in the build up phase of play, as well make timely runs to beat offsides traps. Gone are the days when FCC’s plan off restarts was to look for Brandon Vazquez’s head and to win second balls (unfortunately for Kevin Kelsy).
Also importantly, Kubo makes the kinds of runs that Lucho Acosta likes to play in the box. Kubo’s willingness and ability to time runs splitting defensive lines has resulted in shots. That’s resulted in Kubo receiving the highest total of open play xA from Acosta in 2024, with 3.34 of Acosta’s 10.4.
Also, the signs were there last year. Despite playing a number of roles, Kubo’s 0.40 xG+xAG across more than 1,000 minutes in 2023 was by far his best attacking season in MLS. His 0.42 xG+xAG in 2024 is weighted more heavily towards xG, 0.30 per 90 minutes this year compared to 0.21 xG.
When trying to control for position, Kubo’s statistics look even better. Based on some back of the envelope math2, Kubo is averaging 3.15 shots, 0.46 xG, and 0.15 xAG per 90 minutes. Those numbers won’t win any Golden Boots but for a Cincinnati attack that has struggled to find a striker who can get in positions to take good shots, Kubo has filled FCC’s void at striker.
Things I Want To Explore In The Future:
More on Kubo’s positional versatility
Obi Nwobodo’s future in the Queen City
Reviewing on Kevin Kelsy’s first (and only?) season in Cincinnati
Luca Orellano and positional value
Have other ideas or things you’re curious about? Let me know!
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This includes the first match of the season which Miazga missed serving a suspension. That whole thing feels like forever ago, huh?
Games where Kubo played forward according to Fbref’s database